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Seeing nearly 21% of active listings with price cuts in late Q3 tells you a lot about where things stand right now. Inventory has climbed to over 1.16 million homes—putting us about 9% away from the typical, pre-pandemic numbers. Even with more choices out there, buyers are moving cautiously: homes under contract dropped about 4% year-over-year for the second month running, a clear sign that higher mortgage rates are still making folks think twice about affordability.

The national median list price is sitting around $419K—down about 1% both month-over-month and year-over-year. That’s the eleventh straight month of yearly price drops. Price per square foot is also down roughly 2% compared to last year. Sellers aren’t exactly fleeing the market; only 6% of listings were delisted, which is about the same as last year. But more homeowners are cutting prices and leaving more room for negotiation.

From where I sit, especially working with VA buyers in Duval County, these numbers tell me there’s opportunity for those ready to move. The big question now: will we see more buyers jump in if prices keep dropping, or will this adjustment stretch out a little longer? The market’s shifting, and if you’re a military family looking for leverage, this is the kind of environment where it pays to have someone who knows the ropes.

Lately, I've noticed a real shift in the Florida market—more than 1 in 10 active listings are now priced below what the sellers originally paid. That means plenty of owners are adjusting their expectations to actually make a move, instead of waiting for top dollar. In certain Florida neighborhoods, nearly half the homes up for sale have already dropped their asking prices, and it's not unusual to see sellers offering concessions just to get things moving. After such a big run-up in prices, it's not surprising: higher borrowing costs and more homes on the market have changed the game. Some folks who bought near the peak are choosing to take a smaller return just to cut their losses, lower carrying costs, or move out of neighborhoods that didn’t turn out as expected. From what I’m seeing, more Florida sellers are willing to meet buyers where the market is, rather than where they wish it was. If you're a military family or VA buyer in Duval County, you know how fast this can impact your search—and why straight talk about pricing is more important than ever.

Here's something I’ve been seeing more of in Duval County: new homes are starting to compete with resale prices in a real way. For years, the rule of thumb was that a new build would run you more per square foot—but builder incentives are shaking up those old assumptions. The reason? Builders have a lot of completed homes they need to move, while most homeowners are choosing to stay put, which keeps existing inventory tight and resale prices higher.

Not long ago, new homes always carried a premium. Now, we’re seeing builders cut prices and sweeten the deal, putting buyers in the driver’s seat—especially in neighborhoods where there’s plenty of new inventory. But in spots with less construction, resale sellers still have the upper hand.

If you’re weighing your options, know that the strongest negotiation power is where builders have multiple homes on the market. That could change if new building slows down and the current discounts start to fade. For VA buyers, this is one of those rare windows where a new home might just fit your budget without the usual sticker shock. My job is to help you spot these shifts and make them work in your favor.

Here's something you don't see every day: across the country, brand new homes are now selling for a median $205 per square foot—less than the $212 per square foot for existing homes. That flips the script from previous years when new construction always carried a premium. About one in three major markets is seeing this shift, mainly because builders have gotten serious about competing: more price cuts, more incentives, and more options, especially where inventory has grown. For buyers (especially those who need room to negotiate), it means new builds are actually worth a second look—particularly in areas with plenty of supply. As someone who’s helped a lot of VA buyers and military families make sense of the Duval County market, I know how much value matters. One thing is clear: the best way to keep homes affordable is to keep building, though slower permitting could slow things down. If you’re weighing your options, this is a good time to consider what new construction can offer.

Affordability is always top of mind, especially for military families looking to settle in Duval County. Nationally, three things shape what you can actually afford: where mortgage rates are heading, whether incomes keep rising, and how quickly home prices are climbing—or, hopefully, slowing down. Real relief for buyers doesn’t just come from one of these shifting; it’s the way they work together that matters. The index I follow looks at how much of your income goes toward a monthly payment. When rates drop, incomes rise, or home prices cool off, your situation improves. When any of those tilt the other way, it gets tougher. For anyone keeping an eye on the market, especially VA buyers, watch these three signals: interest rates, your own earning power, and whether home prices are finally catching their breath. That’s how I help Duval families find a home that won’t stretch them too thin—by keeping it real, reading the signals, and knowing what matters most to those who serve.

Indigenous Peoples’ Day celebrates, recognizes, and honors the beautiful traditions and cultures of the Indigenous People
We take a stand for and support the indigenous people on this day.
We should also offer our support to those who invest and uplift the indigenous communities.